Why are we using experts? Predict the future. Should we believe in these experts? History tells us that accurate predictions for the future are rare. There are many examples where the brightest and most qualified individuals could not see the future.
It's tough. :
Focus Group, Inverview, Survey, Qualitative Analysis, Investment Analysis, Open-End Question, Decision Making, Negotiation Method, Conversation Analysis, Negotiation, Text Analysis
Article body:
Why are we using experts? Predict the future. Patients seeking physicians for the future impact of a particular drug, or investors seeking a stock analyst for the future price of a particular stock, or should we believe these experts? History tells us that accurate predictions for the future are rare. There are many examples where the brightest and most qualified individuals could not see the future. This series of articles provides examples of art (see part I), business (see part II), and science (see part III).
<b> Should we believe in business professionals? </ b>
In 1876, Graham-Bell, for his talk patent, is Western Union's largest telegraph company, with a US $ 100,000. An expert committee was convened to determine the company's interest in new technologies. The decision was clear.
"Bell's profession is that of a voice teacher ... yet he has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in this field, a great practical value in communication All telegraph engineers, You will see mistakes in this plan at once: The public can not simply rely on to handle the technical communication facilities ... dealing with people whose subscribers might be illiterate when making a call If not (Martin 1977, p11)
What was the cause of the wrong intuition indicated by the Western Union Commission? Another common cause of false intuition is "number bias." Experts, like all humans, tend to assign value to ideas by the number of people who support it. On the other hand, Western Union, all over the "thousands of workers who spend a year in the field" and the only Alexander * Graham * Bell who was not an engineer, on top of anyone else, who do you believe? Is the value of the erase Western Union forgiven the bell of the value? The implications of Western-Union misplacement intuition were profound. In 1877, when three thousand telephones were already in service, Western Union noticed that they made a tremendous mistake, and in December of 1877, they were 1877 in 1878 in Bell. The Bell Telephone Company, established in the year, filed a lawsuit against Western Union, and Western Union was still a small startup company, but Western Union was a giant, but won lawsuits and called Western Union Removed from the business.
How does this example relate to qualitative research? When analyzing qualitative data, analysts who are prone to numeration bias are valued by the number of times stated in the data, known as frequency counts, but frequency counting is suitable for analysis of qualitative data Is not ... Consider the following example.
"<b> Bill </ b>, the duck pulls his <b> bill </ b> and reconsiders the bill </ b> from his pocket to pay a <b> bill </ b> b And said very angry: "<b> Bill </ b> me! "
Frequency count claims that the bill is the most important word in this sentence. But which bill is that? Is it a duck, bill, money, tub, or charging act? The five tags all have different meanings and are not considered to represent the same idea. Adding them is like adding apples and oranges. Also, the frequency count also tells us that the fact that the bill is very angry is not important, as it was mentioned only once in this sentence.
Unlike structured quantitative data, qualitative data always includes a unique expression expressed by a single individual. "This representation conveys ideas, or emotions, that many shares can be only one clear, so when analyzing qualitative data, you need to look for joints rather than numbers Otherwise, the analysis produces misleading results and false intuition.
Martin J. Future Developments in Telecommunications. Inglewood Cliff, New Jersey, Prentice Hall, 1977.
Should we believe in experts? (Part III)
Why are we using experts? Predict the future. Should we believe in these experts? History tells us that accurate predictions for the future are rare. There are many examples where the brightest and most qualified individuals could not see the future.
It's tough. :
Focus Group, Inverview, Survey, Qualitative Analysis, Investment Analysis, Open-End Question, Decision Making, Negotiation Method, Conversation Analysis, Negotiation, Text Analysis
Article body:
Why are we using experts? Predict the future. Patients seeking physicians for the future impact of a particular drug, or investors seeking a stock analyst for the future price of a particular stock, or should we believe these experts? History tells us that accurate predictions for the future are rare. There are many examples where the brightest and most qualified individuals could not see the future. This series of articles provides examples of art (see part I), business (see part II), and science (see part III).
<b> Should we believe in science experts? </ b>
In science, the predictions made by Sir Sir Rayleigh and Sir Kelvin in airborne flight provide two famous examples of false intuition.
John-William-Strut-Lord-Rayleigh (1842-1919) was a leading physicist in the United Kingdom. In 1876 he was elected president of the London Mathematical Society. In 1879, he was appointed second professor of experimental physics at Cambridge (the first was the famous James clerk Maxwell). Sir * Rayleigh in 1905 was elected President of the Royal Society. In 1908 he became president of Cambridge University. Amber Reilly is probably known for the discovery of the most inert gas argon, in 1895, he won the 1904 Nobel Prize in Physics. Fort Rayleigh was also interested in flying. In 1883 he announced the soaring of birds, and in 1889, albatross sailing flight.
After years of finding his semen in 1896, Rayleigh commented, "I have the smallest molecule of confidence other than balloon navigation. (Martin 1977, p12)
Another great physicist who expressed opinion about air flight rather than heavy, William * Tomson, better known as Lord Kelvin (1824-1907), was an infant genius of mathematics. In 1841, at the age of 11, he entered Glasgow University. Thomson presented his first dissertation in mathematics at the age of sixteen. At the age of 22 in 1846, Thompson became a professor of natural philosophy at the University of Glasgow. In 1847, he first defined an absolute temperature scale, which was later named after him. In 1851, Thompson presented an idea that led to the introduction of the second law of thermodynamics. In 1856, Thompson coined the term "kinetic energy." Thompson also showed an interest in practical issues. In 1854, he joined Cyrusfield's effort to lay out telephone lines in the Atlantic. He got on board the cable laying to improve the cable design and oversee the process. In 1858, Thompson invented and patented a galvanometer as a long distance telegraph receiver meant to detect faint signals. He also invented a tide prediction machine with an improved gyro, a new acoustic device and chart recording. Dr. Kelvin published more than 600 scientific papers and was awarded 70 patents. In 1890, Thompson was elected president of the Royal Society. In 1866, Thompson was given a knight armor. In 1892 he was brought up to the tribe of Largs as baron kelvin, he chose from the Kelvin River, near Glasgow, the title. When he died in 1907, he was buried next to Isaac Newton at Westminster Abbey.
In 1895, Lord Kelvin declared "an airplane heavier than air is impossible". "
17, 1903, less than a decade after Sir Rayleigh and Lord Kelvin made their predictions about the impossibility of flying more than heavy, Wright brothers were their first possession at Kitty Hawk
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